Wednesday, February 2, 2011

USD: MENA happy returns

This is something to watch out for here. USD could fall to 76, but is equally likely to bounce off oversold RSI @ the 30 level. Look at that compelling head-and-shoulders in the middle there. That is so perfect that the dollar almost "has" to complete the move to 76. This is slightly confirmed by the right-hand dip in the Ichimoku cloud, but the cloud itself hasn't broken down, so that's a minor point. So, a day or two or three of grace is possible, but then the USD reascends  to 78.50 by Feb. 22. Real resistance possible @ 79.50 circa March 1, and then it could go either way. One scenario, MENA situation gets out of hand with mega-protests on Friday; and that could signal the start of the real dollar rally. If it hasn't already begun by then.

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