Dollar Headwind update

The dollar is performing a little more quickly than I anticipated in my most recent post. Because of the quick run-up there's a significant chance of a pullback to circa 77.60 before resuming upward move to intersect the 50-day around 79. Passing 79 before Feb. 22 leads to the next move to 79.50 by March 1 or so.
     15% chance of a retrace all the way back to 76. 15% chance this up move goes straight on up to 78.50. All this seems to add up to something of a headwind for equities and commodities---and possibly a tailwind for volatility (though I wouldn't count on much there, given the massive QE forces at work to hold vol down as much as anything).