Tuesday, February 15, 2011

USD crosses RSI median, enters cloudland

RSI now over 51, clearly in upper half of RSI. Having entered cloud from below, tendency to explore toward upper limit of cloud, this would be circa 80 now. MACD giving lots of leeway for this to take place. Only question, does it go past that doubly achieved 81.25 if it breaks past the cloud? No guarantee of that happening, though. The cloud membrane could prove impermeable!

Friday, February 11, 2011

Dollar approaches median on RSI

Intersect w 50-day @ 79.00 more likely, supported by rising MACD. Angle of approach to RSI median suggests breakthrough into upper half of RSI range. Then look to 80.50.....

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Dollar Rise Coming Into Focus

Dollar hit an interesting micro-low yesterday at 11:30 AM, getting close enough to a point it could bounce off of in order to resume its rise, as I suggested might be necessary (77.60 was my thought).  Probably got close enough for jazz-rock. So, a number of pieces are in place for the dollar to continue higher. The beginnings of a little handle formation are evident in the RSI and USD itself, which, at this juncture, points us higher. Then, the MACD is showing that classic "uptick off the bottom" which provides impetus, and at this point, room to run to the upside. What causes the next (temporary, of course) USD pop? Subsidence of China issues/fears, re-emergence of Euro instability, heightening of (inadequately anticipated) MENA fissures/implosions---all three? Look to 79.16, the "armpits" hit on the second and last weeks of December, as a convenient next achievable  "hut", where it can pick up some Snickers bars and decide what to do after.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Dollar Headwind update

The dollar is performing a little more quickly than I anticipated in my most recent post. Because of the quick run-up there's a significant chance of a pullback to circa 77.60 before resuming upward move to intersect the 50-day around 79. Passing 79 before Feb. 22 leads to the next move to 79.50 by March 1 or so.
     15% chance of a retrace all the way back to 76. 15% chance this up move goes straight on up to 78.50. All this seems to add up to something of a headwind for equities and commodities---and possibly a tailwind for volatility (though I wouldn't count on much there, given the massive QE forces at work to hold vol down as much as anything).

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

USD: MENA happy returns

This is something to watch out for here. USD could fall to 76, but is equally likely to bounce off oversold RSI @ the 30 level. Look at that compelling head-and-shoulders in the middle there. That is so perfect that the dollar almost "has" to complete the move to 76. This is slightly confirmed by the right-hand dip in the Ichimoku cloud, but the cloud itself hasn't broken down, so that's a minor point. So, a day or two or three of grace is possible, but then the USD reascends  to 78.50 by Feb. 22. Real resistance possible @ 79.50 circa March 1, and then it could go either way. One scenario, MENA situation gets out of hand with mega-protests on Friday; and that could signal the start of the real dollar rally. If it hasn't already begun by then.

Monday, January 31, 2011

Best to Work For (but investors should like them too)

I was going post a piece on the out-performance history of the annual Fortune magazine
"Best Companies to Work For". Over a year ago, I randomly came across an independent quantitative study showing just such out-performance, and rather impressively. Well, now I don't have to fish around for that study, cuz Fortune has saved me the trouble to some extent, as you can see here. Should be good for a 5-minute trade by high-frequency traders!
So, the upside is you get to contribute to some, perhaps small, marginal increment in the world's happiness level (i.e., among these lucky workers).....and at the same time make some money. Not a bad deal. On this list I especially like Intel

and Aeropostale

Monday, November 29, 2010

The Spanish Prisoner

Succint Krugman piece:

The bad news about America is that a powerful political faction is trying to shackle the Federal Reserve, in effect removing the one big advantage we have over the suffering Spaniards. Republican attacks on the Fed — demands that it stop trying to promote economic recovery and focus instead on keeping the dollar strong and fighting the imaginary risks of inflation — amount to a demand that we voluntarily put ourselves in the Spanish prison.